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COVID-19 Part 7: New York and Massachusetts Continue to Improve - Sweden Is Less Clear - Monitoring Georgia 17 Days After Lifting Restrictions

The science of COVID-19 explained by a doctor.

By Anthony Lee, MD

Faculty, Harvard Medical School

As we make our way through this pandemic, the large number of cases in the United States has caught our attention and prompted much discussion. In Part 7 of this series, we continue to see New York and Massachusetts reliably decline in the number of daily deaths. As we assume that the pandemic in these states is on the mend, we will no longer track the number of daily new cases.

Likewise, Ireland and the UK have not seen increases in daily new cases or deaths over the last 3-5 weeks, so we will no longer follow them. However, as these countries begin easing lockdown measures, this may change.

COVID-19 Cases Tracker

In Figure 1, the plot for "The Rest of the United States" (US minus NYS or US-NYS) is compared to those of Sweden and Georgia.

On the left of Figure 1, the cumulative number of cases increased at different rates by location. On the right of Figure 1, the number of daily new cases are declining in Georgia and the Rest of the US, while it plateaus in Sweden.

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COVID-19 Part 6: Massachusetts Tops New York in Daily Casualties While Sweden Seems to Magically Improve

The science of COVID-19 explained by a doctor.

By Anthony Lee, MD

Faculty, Harvard Medical School


As we make our way through this pandemic, the large number of cases in the United States has caught our attention and prompted much discussion. In Part 6 of this series, we continue to see Ireland and the UK consistently decline in number of daily deaths. If we assume that the pandemic in these countries is on the mend, tracking the number of cases is no longer fruitful.

Likewise, Italy, Belgium, and Northern Ireland have not seen increases in daily new cases, or deaths, over the last 3-6 weeks so we will no longer follow them. However, as these countries begin easing lockdown measures, this may change.

Please note that this report will only consider confirmed COVID deaths.

As explained in Part 4 and Part 5, it's the case density (cases per 100,000 people) that matters and not the total number of cases. The higher the number of cases per 100,000 people, the more dangerous that location is. For example: riding in a subway car. If a specific location has a high case density, it's more likely that riding on a subway car in that location will have more infected passengers compared to a subway car in a different location.


COVID-19 Cases Tracker

In Figure 1, Plots of New York City and New York State are compared to Massachusetts, "The Rest of the United States" (US minus NYS or US-NYS), and Sweden.

On the left of Figure 1, Massachusetts' cumulative number of cases continues to rise. On the right of Figure 1, the number of daily new cases in Massachusetts is declining. However, its daily new cases now exceed that of NYS, which started to decline 15 days prior.

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COVID-19 Part 5: Massachusetts Tops New York in Number of Daily New Cases Per Capita

A doctor at Harvard Medical School updates us on the outbreak.

By Anthony Lee, MD

Faculty, Harvard Medical School


As we make our way through this pandemic, the large number of cases in the United States has caught our attention and prompted much discussion. In Part 5 of this series, we see Italy, Belgium, and Northern Ireland continue to reliably decline in the number of daily deaths. In these countries, tracking the number of cases is no longer of interest as we assume that the pandemic is on the mend. However, as these countries begin easing lockdown measures, this assumption may change.

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